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Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Pin the Tail on the Moose

Everyone wants the Braves to get Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas. Why? He’s having a good year this year. But what evidence suggests he can keep this up? Have these people looked at his entire career? Moose already has a bum knee. He’s played eight seasons. Would the Braves be paying for a player in his prime, or for past production? Think about when the Angels got Pujols. When the Yankees signed Brian McCann. When the Braves got Dan Uggla and BJ Upton. Len Barker. Bartolo Colon.
 
Who does Moose compare to? Trout? Stanton? Kris Bryant? Manny Machado? As Motumbo says: no, no, no, no. Let’s just compare the Royals star to plain Jane players Nick Markakis and Jason Heyward. Markakis joined the Braves right after having shoulder surgery. Some say he hasn’t been the same since. Heyward signed a huge contract with the Cubs, then became the weakest link in their lineup. No one is going to sell the farm to obtain Markakis or Heyward. Should they for Moose?
 
Who has been the most productive since 2011, when Moose came into the league? I’ll spot you home runs.
 
Home Runs: MM 117, JH 96, NM 76
Batting Average:
On Base Percentage:
Slugging Percentage:
On Base + Slugging:
Extra Base Hits:
Runs Batted In:
Games Played:
 
Moose hit the most homers, and that’s about it. But there’s more to baseball than hitting home runs. Ask Matt Adams. In the field Moose has averaged 12.5 errors per season. That’s one every other week. And can Moose make the transition to the National League?
 
My baseball expert friend Rob says “Moustakas would fill a big need, but I am wary of throwing big dollars at a player who has had two full above average offensive seasons.” Riley may be ready by 2019, so a platoon of Camargo and Ruiz would be better than what we have seen since Chipper left.
 
MM.G.avg.obp.SLG.ops.HR.BI.XB.errors
11 089 263 309 367 676 05 30 24 11
12 149 242 396 412 708 20 73 55 15
13 136 233 287 364 651 12 42 38 16
14 140 212 271 361 632 15 54 37 19
15 147 284 348 470 818 22 82 57 12
16 027 240 301 500 801 07 13 13 02
17 137 271 313 523 836 36 82 59 12
00 825 251 305 425 730 117 376 283
 
NM.G.avg.obp.SLG.ops.HR.BI.XBH
11 160 284 351 406 757 15 73  47
12 104 298 363 471 834 13 54  44
13 160 271 329 356 685 10 59  34
14 155 276 342 386 728 14 50  42
15 156 296 370 376 746 03 53  42
16 158 269 346 397 743 13 89  51
17 148 276 356 389 745 08 69  45
0 1041 288 358 423 781 76 447 305
 
Markakis played in 216 more games. Batted 37 points higher, on base .053 more often. OPS was 51 points higher.

JH..G...BA.obp.SLG.ops.HR.BI.XBH
11 128 227 319 389 708 14 42  34
12 158 269 335 479 814 27 82  63
13 104 254 349 427 776 14 38  37
14 149 271 351 384 735 11 58  40
15 154 293 359 439 798 13 60  50
16 142 230 306 325 631 07 49  35
17 117 263 326 388 714 10 54  27
00 952 262 344 412 756 96 383 286
 
Heyward played in 127 more games. Batted 11 points higher, on base .039 more often. OPS was 23 points higher
 
More from Rob: Gohara looks really good. So does Newcomb if he can keep his walks down. I don't know if Folty will ever be consistent across a full season. Simms looks like he will be a bullpen arm next year. I HOPE they don't exercise Dickey's option.
 
Albies has been more than expected. Swanson looks much more settled after his recall from the minors. I would like to see them bat Albies and Swanson 1-2 and move Inciarte down.  With him being a high Average/low OBP hitter, I think he would function better in more of a run producing role. They will probably trade Markakis to open a spot for Acuna.
 
I don't think Snitker will be back next year.  Probably Ron Washington takes his place.
 
QUIZ ANSWER: with the exception of slugging (MM 425 NM 421 JH 412), Moose trails Markakis and Heyward in every category. Still want to sell the farm for Moose?

Will Moose be the next Chipper and Freddie – or Uggla and BJ Upton? What say you?

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