Thursday, January 22, 2015

Gomes or Ichiro?

The Braves are looking to sign an additional outfielder for the 2015 season. This offseason new GM John Hart has gone to great lengths to reshape the team from a swing for the fences league leading strikeout team into a high contact line drive club like the past few World Series winning teams of the Giants and Cardinals. With hotheads Chris Johnson and AJ Pierzynski on the roster, the addition of a veteran leader / example would be most helpful. Two of the top free agent outfielders still available are 35 year old Jonny Gomes and 42 year old Ichiro Suzuki. Both have spent most all of their careers in the American League. I knew little of Gomes so I looked him up. Below is a comparison in several key analytics as well as their 2014 season statistics.

PL.YR.AVG.OBP.SLG.OPS.AB.BB.SO
IS 2014 284 324 340 664 359 21 68
JG 2014 234 327 330 657 273 35 88

IS life 317 360 411 771 8964 565 944
JG life 244 335 442 777 3231 386 1007

Home runs should not be a deciding factor for either player. Gomes hasn’t hit 20 home runs since 2009 and has only hit 20 in three of his 12 seasons – and those were totals of 20, 21, and 20). A more likely deciding factor for the Braves is whether they most need a left-handed hitter (Ichiro) or a righty (Gomes).  

PL..H...R.2B.3B.HR.BI.SB.CS
IS 102 42 13  2   1  22  15  3
JG  64 28   8  0   6  37    0   0

I don’t know what kind of fielder Gomes is, though he did DH a lot. Ichiro won the Gold Glove ten straight seasons.

Batting average the past 4 seasons:
IS 284 262 283 272
JG 234 247 262 209

The last thing the Braves need to do is to pay millions for someone to compete with BJ Upton for the lowest batting average on the team. Ichiro is motivated to reach 3000 hits – he’s only 156 away. Adding his 1278 hits in Japan, Suzuki is close to passing Pete Rose as the all-time hit king - only 134 hits to go. He only needs 67 hits to pass Ty Cobb for second place.

Games played the past 4 seasons:
IS 143 150 162 161
JG 112 116  99 120

The drop in Ichiro’s games played last season could have been more a factor of the Yankees wanting to try out other players. The former MVP may be 42 years old but he keeps himself in great shape and works harder than anyone else in the game. His work ethic and wisdom would be a great example for young players like Andrelton Simmons and Christian Bethancourt.

OPS the past four seasons:
IS  664 639 696 645
JG 657 771 868 714

Last year Gomes struck out 20 more times than Ichiro - in 86 fewer at bats. Gomes career strikeout rate of 31 times per 100 at bats is three times that of Ichiro and higher even than Dan Uggla (28) or BJ Upton (30). This stat alone should be the deciding factor.
 
While Ichiro could possibly sport the Braves’ classic striped stirrups (last seen on the legs of Andruw Jones), Gomes made his own White House fashion statement by wearing a red, white, and blue blazer.
 
Alas, the Marlins just offered Ichiro a one year two million dollar contract, so the Braves would have to act fast. Atlanta could offer more playing time than the Fish have available. Baltimore is also in the running for Suzuki.

Unfortunately, Hart has given no indication that he is even interested in the seemingly best available option. Though he did not share them with me, I’m sure the experienced Hart has his reasons. With over 70 days before opening day, there’s no need to rush.

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