My Super Bowl Pick

Everyone hates the Patriots. Right now they're what the Yankees used to be: a dynasty. Some call them cheaters. Many teams stretch the rules - weren't the Falcons recently penalized for some infraction? So were the Braves.

Fickle fans forget that maybe the Pats win because they're just a little smarter and work a little harder. Sure their head coach is an old grump who doesn't dress well on the sidelines. Neither of those things count in the standings. Tom Brady works harder than any other player in the league. His dedication to his craft and to his diet and fitness is unlike anyone else, as is his competitive fire - Jordanesque.

That's why for ywears I've liked New England. Brady and Belichick. They have a good kicker. I like their shade of blue jerseys. Sure, last year I rooted for the Falcons. Sure, when the Birds led 28-3 I was feeling pretty good. But in the back of my head I knew to not count out Brady.

Last year Atlanta was the home team and wore their home red jerseys. Big mistake. Amazingly, the team wearing white jerseys have won the Super Bowl the past six seasons, and 12 of the past 13 times as well (Fourteen years ago the Pats won wearing blue jerseys). This year New England is the home team. They're leaving their home blues back home, and wearing white jerseys.

But this year seems different. The Pats lost a big early-season game in Kansas City. They don't have to be perfect, and their 13-3 record was far from sloppy. After the championship games set the Super Bowl match-up I didn't give it much thought: New England would beat the Eagles.

I mean, who likes Philadelphia? The fans are obnoxious. Their quarterback is hurt. Their uniforms are unimaginative and downright ugly.  They barely beat the woeful Falcons. Then I was surprised they beat the Vikings. And they beat them bad: 38-7. 

Today it finally hit me. The Eagles will win. They're the team with the momentum. They had a 13-3 regular season record as well, with backup QB Nick Foles finishing the season. The Pats barely beat Jacksonville, allowing the Jags anemic offense twenty points. New England trailed most of the game, and had to mount yet another comeback to win. Says here the Pats can't do it again.  

Jacksonville boasted the second best defense in the NFL, allowing only 286 yards per game. Philadelphia ranks fourth at 306 YPG. The Eagles put up 38 on Minnesota's top-rated defense. The Pats defense ranks 29th in the league.

Of course I am usually wrong about these things. New England has experience in Super Bowl settings, and Brady and Belichick are still at the top of their game. Today injured Eagle QB Carson Wentz beat out Brady for Player of the Year. That's gotta give Brady extra incentive. And there's the whole Sports Illustrated cover jinx thing.