Hot Stove: Braves Starters

I agree with Mark Bradley's recent article about the Braves pitching situation (reprinted below). Fried had a blister. Wright was shut down. Charlie Morton was hurt. Ian Anderson missed the season. Soroka excelled in Gwinnett but couldn't make the lead to the big club. Spencer Strider I think was worn down from the long season. He led the league in wins and strikeouts, but wasn't a Cy Young finalist for some reason. The Braves have two top pitching prospects, but they are young. Like Glavine and Smoltz, Elder and Allard need experience. That's ten starting pitchers right there. I say the Braves will pay for more pitching – but they won't overpay.

The Braves have the best GM in baseball. He knows the rotation needs help. He will do what he can, but unlike the Mets he won't overpay out of desperation – nor should he. That backfired for the Mets. I trust GM AA to upgrade the pitching as best he can. He might not make a deal next week but that's okay – spring training doesn't start for 13 weeks, and Opening Day isn't for another 4-1/2 months. There's time. AA has to build not just the rotation but also sign relievers and hitters. What's stupid is when AA signs a middle reliever in November, and the "experts" on social media cry foul, complaining he didn't sign Cy Young.

I'm afraid no amount of money the Braves through at Max Fried will be enough. Like Freddie Freeman, Fried is from southern California. He wants to go home. No fault of AA or the Braves. The only thing that gives me a ray of hope that Fried will re-sign with Atlanta is when I see him attending Hawks games.

Pitching: the Braves aren't the only team with pitching problems. Most teams are dealing with the same issue. More often than not, throwing money at the problem doesn't fix things. Look at the Yankees and Mets. Plus as Bradley says, a bad idea to trade a hitter for a pitcher. Good thing the Braves are developing so many young pitchers – but Rome wasn't built in a day. 

I can't always read AJC articles because I don't subscribe. Feel free to email me any other articles you find interesting! 

Bradley's article:                                           

Bradley's Buzz: How much will Braves pay for pitching? Credit: Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com By season's end, the Braves were half a great team. In October, they became an object lesson. When next someone invokes that hoary baseball truism – good pitching stops good hitting – the freshest example will be the 2023 Braves. They hit a record-tying 307 homers. They slugged a record-setting .501. They lost in the Division Series. They lost because their good hitters were stifled by Philadelphia's good pitchers – and because their starters couldn't solve Nick Castellanos, who hit four homers in Games 3 and 4, three off starters Bryce Elder and Spencer Strider. In the ensuing NLCS against Arizona, Castellanos went 1-for-24. To be fair, the Braves entered the playoffs with a rusty Max Fried (finger blister) and without Charlie Morton (finger sprain). That said, this team never found a rotation that, er, rotated. Fried went 90 days between turns. Kyle Wright went 99 and, on returning, wasn't himself. He underwent shoulder surgery in October. He won't pitch in 2024. In spring training, Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard – the Braves picked both in Round 1 of the 2015 draft – auditioned to be the No. 5 starter. The job fell to Elder, who soon became the No. 3 starter. He had an All-Star first half; his second half ERA was 5.11. Together, Soroka and Allard started eight big-league games. The 2022 Braves used 12 starting pitchers, five of whom took 20-plus turns. The 2023 club used 16 starters, with only three topping 15 starts. Things were OK for a while. At the All-Star break, the starters' ERA was 3.77. Then they weren't. The starters' post-break ERA: 5.10. A September series in Philly saw the Braves win three of four and clinch a sixth consecutive division title – more highlights in a highlight-reel season. Lost in the celebration was a foreboding stat.: The aggregate score of those four games was Braves 26, Phillies 22. Aggregate score of the NLDS: Phillies 20, Braves 8. Come October, Philly found ways to get the bashing Braves out. Over four games, their biggest lead was one run. Their biggest inning saw them score two runs. The intent today isn't to relitigate the postseason failure. The intent is to note that the Braves' rotation was compromised before October. This team led the majors in runs scored by a mile. It tied for 15th in runs against. It's all but certain they'll add a starter over the offseason. They might add more than one. The lineup has a hole only because the Braves chose not to re-up Eddie Rosario, which makes room for Vaughn Grissom. The rotation includes Fried, who could leave after next season; Spencer Strider, who led the majors in wins and strikeouts but who isn't a Cy Young finalist; Morton, who turns 40 on Sunday, and maybe Elder. Ian Anderson should return after Tommy John surgery, the procedure that sometimes turns good pitchers into better pitchers. AJ Smith-Shawver is the Braves' No. 1 prospect; he's also 20. Soroka could be non-tendered. There's a need for something more than an Alex Anthopoulos one-year buy. Thing is, those one-year buys – Anibal Sanchez, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, Drew Smyly – were made for a reason. (Morton was a one-year buy who keeps signing extensions.) Another truism: Long-term deals for big-name pitchers become sunk costs. The Mets entered last season with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer earning $43.3 million each; by August, each was elsewhere. The Rangers signed Jacob deGrom for $185M over five seasons. He worked six games. He's now a 35-year-old pitcher coming off a second Tommy John surgery. He's owed $155M. MLB Trade Rumors lists Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery as the top starting pitchers available as free agents. Its projects they'll command contracts ranging from $150M to $200M. For the Braves, that's a no-fly zone. MLBTR guesses that Sonny Gray, who's 34, might sign for $90M over four years, which might be both do-able and prudent. This team needs insurance against Fried leaving. Might the Braves be tempted to trade one of their young position players under a manageable contract for a top-of-the-rotation-type? Tempted, maybe. Do I see it happening? No. That notion would be dashed by the words "young" and "manageable." One final truism: Don't trade bats for arms. Proven hitters tend to keep hitting. Even the best pitcher in the world – deGrom, say – is one twinge from a year's rehab. As much as the Braves need pitching, there are limits to how much they'll pay. That's not a criticism. That's just reality.

Info on Rob Suggs' new book…

The Book that Conquered Time whitakerhouse.com

C left Goose downstairs last night. I had gone to bed early, but Goose's yelping woke me up. I went downstairs and slept on the couch to keep her company. Slept until 730, showered, and drove to work.

I am so out of touch about Hollywood, TV, and movies. Just realized I hadn't been watching Young Sheldon, the only TV show I watch these days, for the most part. Turns out the writers strike has delayed the season until next year. Oh, well, no big loss.

I have been watching Quantum Leap, which comes on Wednesdays at 8 pm, right after Jeopardy – the night C is at small group. Time travel, though back into the past. My kind of show. Every week is completely different. One of the original Ghostbusters is in the show.

This next week lunch is to be catered again. Monday will be Chickfila sandwiches and macaroni & cheese. Thursday will be a burger bar.

Didn't the Roman Empire fall due to internal strife? I learned that from Radar on MASH.