This past week the announcement was made with little fanfare: LSU running back Leonard Fournette’s career as a collegian had come to an end. Instead of helping his team win the bowl game, Fournette would begin preparations for the NFL draft. For the past three seasons Fournette had been compared to many great backs from the past, like Herschel Walker.
Almost exactly 34 years ago a similar announcement was made with great fanfare: Walker became the first junior to leave college early, signing a record deal with the New Jersey Generals of the USFL - a team that would eventually be bought by an investor named Donald Trump.
Like most, Fournette failed to come close to Walker’s incredible three year college numbers. Note their three-year career totals below, compared with those of Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Todd Gurley, and Bo Jackson’s four year total.
rush.TD.rec.rec.TD.return.TD.tot.TD
5259 49 26 0243 03 0247 00 5749 52 HW
3922 21 99 1206 10 1859 02 6987 50 CM
3830 40 41 0526 01 0625 01 4835 49 LF
3282 28 27 0331 04 0000 00 3613 32 NC
4303 43 26 0272 02 0317 00 4892 45 BJ (4 yr)
3285 36 65 0615 06 0422 02 4322 44 TG
This year Fournette was slowed by injuries, yet another reason for the junior to go pro. But beware: while many young running backs shine as NFL rookies (see Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott), sustained success isn’t quite as easy. Like many high draft picks, Gurley plays for a losing team – the lowly Rams.
Leonard Fournette
0843 08 15 146 0 625 1 1468 16
1953 22 19 253 1 000 0 2206 23
1034 10 07 127 0 000 0 1161 10
3830 40 41 526 1 625 1 4835 49
Stanford’s McCaffrey quietly out-produced Fournette, gaining over 2000 more yards. In the past two seasons McCaffrey outgained Fournette 6191 to 3367. McCaffrey’s record-breaking sophomore season, surpassing the single-season totals of Barry Sanders, will go unrewarded.
Many will question whether McCaffrey can have a productive pro career, but many smaller players have succeeded in the NFL. Like every other player, much of his success will be determined by which team selects him. Rare are the players who shine on losing teams. Examples include Calvin Johnson, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, and Herschel Walker.
Perhaps McCaffrey’s size will cause him to be picked later on in the draft, allowing him to be chosen be a more successful team. He’d be a perfect fit for a team like the Patriots – or the Falcons.
Christian McCaffrey
0300 00 17 0251 02 0245 0 0796 19
2019 08 45 0645 05 1200 2 3864 15
1603 13 37 0310 03 0414 0 2327 16
3922 21 99 1206 10 1859 2 6987 50
Walker rushed for almost 1500 more yards than Fournette and 1400 more than McCaffrey. Herschel’s totals do not include his three bowl games. Back in the early 80’s teams played one fewer regular season games than today.
Herschel Walker
1616 15 07 070 0 119 0 1805 15
1891 18 14 084 2 092 0 2067 20
1752 16 05 089 1 036 0 1877 17
5259 49 26 243 3 247 0 5749 52
Unlike Fournette and McCaffrey, Georgia’s Nick Chubb will return next year for his senior season. Should he have a monster year he could possibly break Herschel’s school record for most rushing yards, despite (1) getting off to a slow start as a freshman, (2) missing over half his sophomore season with an injury, and (3) a disappointing junior season. But with Sony Michel also returning, Walker’s record is probably safe.
Nick Chubb
1547 14 18 213 2 000 0 1760 16
0747 07 04 032 1 000 0 0779 08
0988 07 05 086 1 000 0 1074 08
3282 28 27 331 4 000 0 3613 32
With just a decent year Chubb should be able to better Bo Jackson’s four year totals, which were almost one thousand yards shy of Walker’s totals for three seasons. Next week in the Independence Bowl Chubb should pass Todd Gurley for second place in career rushing yards at Georgia.
4303 43 26 272 2 317 0 4892 45 BJ
3285 36 65 615 6 422 2 4322 44 TG
While I wish Fournette and McCaffrey well – they are so fun to watch – it is highly unlikely they will come close gaining as many professional yards as Walker. After setting the college rushing records for freshmen, sophomores, and juniors, Herschel gained over 7000 yards in his three years in the USFL, then added over 18,000 yards in the NFL – retired second all-time in combined yards in NFL history (and first among all professionals).
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